David’s Articles

David has been writing and publishing since 2006.  

This post was written and published prior to September 2023 when David and his prior firm, Family Capital Strategy, merged with Greycourt.  Views expressed reflected David’s personal views at the time and do not necessarily reflect the views of Greycourt.  Posts and information may be out of date and should not be relied upon for investment advice.

My Favorite Signs of a Near Market Peak

Nov 2, 2017 | Family Wealth

So maybe the market has not peaked yet, but these are indicators I have seen across market cycles that seem to correlate well with the peak. I’ve tried to append new articles / headlines relevant to each.

  1. Tallest building in the world is under construction – Saudi Arabia just announced plans to build a $500 billion mega-city that’s 33 times the size of New York City – Normally a new world’s tallest building is a good indicator of a market top, but maybe this beats even that?
  2. New can’t lose asset class has everyone involved – Obviously crypto-currency
  3. Art auctions at Sotheby’s / Christies are at new high – Hodinkee – Paul Newman’s Rolex Daytona Sells For $17,752,500, Becoming The World’s Most Expensive Wristwatch Ever Sold
  4. GMO starts having to lay off employees due to bad performance – WSJ – Magic Eludes Bubble-Caller Jeremy Grantham, as Assets at GMODrop by More Than $40 Billion.  Investor Jeremy Grantham’s money management firm is cutting its workforce amid client defections.
  5. Sheiks start buying assets in your non-coastal town – Buyer from Bahrain pays $100M for Nashville office building
  6. “This time is different” – Grantham says higher valuations will persist
  7. The can’t lose magazine cover – see Economist “Bull Market in Everything” https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21730019-ultra-loose-monetary-policy-coming-end-it-best-tread-carefully-asset-prices-are
  8. PE Funds raising new rounds quickly and above target size – Bloomberg – Why Private Equity Has $963 Billion in Dry Powder
  9. New top industry destination for Harvard MBA graduates
  10. New creative valuation technique to justify higher than typical traditional measures 


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